基于DEA和偏相关分析的港城发展关联效应

摘要

The relationship between the development of the Ningbo port and the city is investigated with the method of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and partial correlation analysis.The DEA analysis reveals that the Ningbo port and the city show strong phenomenon of interaction before 2011,and the promoting function that the port has to the city is obvious.During 2011-2014,Ningbo port gradually entered the maturing stage,characterized by slower development,and correspondingly,the economy of the Ningbo city entered its "self-actuating" development stage.Since 2015,Ningbo Port has been in the decline stage of development.The partial correlation analysis and the correlation analysis reveals that the development of the Ningbo port has played an important role in economical development of the Ningbo city,especially that of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,and the economical development of the city has obvious promoting function to the port throughput.Developing the tertiary industry vigorously will be the inevitable trend of the Ningbo city.%以港城关系发展为研究对象,在对宁波港进行深入调研的基础上,分别运用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)方法和偏相关分析方法对宁波市港城互动情况进行研究.通过DEA分析得到:2011年以前,宁波市港城之间呈现明显的互动现象,港口对城市发展的推动作用明显;2011-2014年,宁波港发展逐步进入缓慢增长的成熟期,宁波市经济逐步进入自身发展的阶段;而到2015年,宁波港进入下降发展阶段.基于偏相关分析及相关分析理论对宁波市港城关系的发展进行研究,结果表明:宁波港的发展对宁波市经济的推动作用显著,且集中表现在第二和第三产业;城市经济的发展对港口吞吐量的提升作用明显,大力发展第三产业、推动产业升级是宁波市港城协调互动发展的必然趋势.