中国天然气基准价格形成中的若干问题

摘要

由于和油价挂钩的天然气定价机制不能反映中国以及东亚地区其他国家天然气市场的基本面,包括中国在内的几个东亚地区的国家都在考虑建立自己的天然气基准价格.为此,分析了建立中国天然气基准价格应有的动力,厘清了交易枢纽的基本概念,并提出形成中国天然气基准价格的基本条件,即:①具备供买卖双方交易合同的交易所;②具备明确交割地的交易枢纽;③具有标准化的交易产品;④具备竞争性的市场环境包括足够数量的市场参与者.基于上述条件,分析了形成中国天然气基准价格的现状:①中国目前仅仅建立了功能不全的现货交易所,仍缺乏明确定义的交易枢纽,不具备形成天然气中国价格的必要条件;②多个重要骨干管网的交汇地,或者管输能力充足的主要市场,都有望在未来成为基准枢纽.最后针对形成中国天然气基准价格提出建议:天然气市场化改革形成竞争性的天然气市场是形成基准价格的前提,在当前改革仍旧不到位的环境下,有关部门可以从理顺现货和期货交易平台的关系、建立交易枢纽着手,先夯实基础.%The oil indexed pricing mechanisms for natural gas and LNG in Asia markets,although successful until 1990s,are general considering to be no longer appropriate,including weak relationship between oil and gas market fundamentals.Since the current oil-indexed pricing system fails to reflect the natural gas market fundamentals,several East Asian countries including China are considering formulating their own natural gas benchmark prices.In view of this,this paper first analyzed the impetus of formulating natural gas benchmark price in China,interpreted the basic concepts relevant to trading hubs,and proposed the necessary conditions including Natural Gas Exchange that for buyers and sellers to trade contracts,gas trading hubs,both virtual and physical,standardized spot & futures products,and competitive market environment & enough market participants.On this basis,such present status of China was analyzed as follows.First,far from the necessary conditions,China is only equipped with spot markets up till now for lack of futures markets and clearly defined trading hubs.Therefore,establishing a trading platform should be the immediate action.Second,future benchmark hubs are expected to be established in those conjunction areas of artery lines or in those major producing or consuming markets with adequate pipeline capacity.Looking ahead,a competitive natural gas market should be formed through market-oriented reform,which is the prerequisite of formulating natural gas benchmark prices.Besides,under the present status of not-in-place reform environment in China,relevant departments should consolidate the foundation by coordinating the relations between spot and futures exchange platforms and establishing trading hubs,etc.The paper suggests that despite of different views on the creditability of a Chinese benchmark price,it will be more or less utilized at least for gas and LNG trades with China.