隧道围岩变形预测Verhulst模型的精度与影响因素分析

摘要

Considering that the Verhulst model has a sound basis for modeling and good prediction results for the final deformation of surrounding rocks, this paper discusses its serviceability and accuracy in the prediction of rock deformation and compares it with the traditional model. The results show that the prediction accuracy in-creases with a decrease of parameter a in the Verhulst model, and its variation law will contribute to the selection of the optimum time for secondary lining installation without any external disturbances.%针对隧道围岩最终变形的预测,灰色Verhulst模型有着较好建模基础,且预测效果较好.文章探讨了应用Verhulst模型预测隧道围岩变形的适用性和精度问题,并与传统模型进行了对比分析. 研究结果表明,Verhulst模型中的参数a越小,预测精度越高,而且其变化规律可以帮助剔除外界干扰,从而选择最佳二次衬砌施作时机.