高校群体性事件的舆情预警与应急处置体系构建譹訛——以自组织理论为视角

摘要

In China,the mass incidents in universities have the characteristics of openness,imbalance, coherence,synergy and random fluctuation.The analysis on the public -media -government model and flow of entropy shows that the dissemination and feedback of public sentiment information are the order parameters and driving force of the evolution of the mass incidents system. Then the paper constructs a five-phase modle of the self-organizing evolution system of the mass incidents and the system of early-warning and emergency handling of mass incidents in Universities which consists of information collection subsystem,information analysis subsystem,early-warning subsystem and emergency handling subsystem.%　　我国高校群体性事件系统具有自组织特征，即开放性、远离平衡、诸要素的“相干”和“协同”、系统的随机涨落等。通过对舆情形成的“公众—媒介—政府”模式和“熵流”的分析显示，大学生舆情信息的传播、反馈与满足是高校群体性事件系统演进的重要序参量和动力所在，从而形成了高校群体性事件系统自组织演进的六阶段模型。因此，我国高校群体性事件的预警与应急处置应充分重视舆情的动力作用，需要建立包括信息采集和分析系统、舆情预警系统、应急处置系统在内的高校群体性事件的舆情预警与应急处置体系，为建设和谐校园提供保障