基于CLUE-S模型的郧县中心城区土地利用变化模拟研究

摘要

Using the land use data of Yunxian County in 2009 as the basic data source,the driving factors with great influence on land use change were selected,GIS software was used for data processing,CLUE-S model was used to simulate the change of land use pattern in 2012,and the present land use data of 2012 was used to validate the simulate results.The validation had accurate results and indicated that this model was very powerful in predicting the future land use change.At last,the land use pattern of 2020 was simulated based on the land use data of 2012,in order to provide scientific support for the sustainable development of land use.%以郧县中心城区2009年土地利用数据为基础数据源，选取对土地利用变化影响较大的驱动因子，借助GIS软件进行数据处理，运用CLUE-S模型对其2012年的土地利用变化格局进行模拟，并利用2012年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验。结果表明，模拟取得了较好的效果，CLUE-S模型模拟可以用于未来郧县中心城区用地的变化，最后利用2012年的土地利用数据模拟2020年的土地利用格局，以期为土地利用的可持续发展提供科学的决策支持。