Spatial Pattern Simulation on Land Use Change in Nanchang Based on CLUE-S Model

摘要

The CLUE-S model is a widely used method in the aspect of spatial simulation. CLUE-S model to simulate the land use space pattern of Nanchang in 2005, and compare the simulated results with the land use status figure of Nanchang in 2005 was built on the basis of taking Nanchang as research region, analyzing the land use data of Nanchang in 1995 based on GIS technology, combining natural and social economic factors such as railway, highway, river, settlements, DEM, slope, aspect, etc. and filtering decisive driving factors to the spatial change of Nanchang's main land use types with SPSS Logistic regression analysis. In the basic unit of 150M×150M grid level, KAPPA index reaches 0.870, the experimental result is ideal. At the same time, predicting the land use pattern of the year 2017 is based on the land use data of Nanchang in 2005. Experimental results indicate that CLUE-S model has good predicting ability to urban spatial structure development, and has reference value to driving mechanism research of the urban layout and analyzing urban development.