甲型H1N1流感防控建模分析

摘要

构建了符合甲型H1N1流感疫情传播和防控特点的仓室模型,并用该模型仿真分析了2009年4月到2010年5月之间,中美两国甲型H1N1流感疫情的发展过程.通过对模型中检疫隔离和疫苗接种等防控参数的敏感性分析,讨论了各种防控措施的有效性.结合中美防控策略分析得失,为今后类似的突发传染病疫情防控提供参考依据.%By improving the compartmental models for existing infectious diseases, we proposed a new compartment model with 11 states,which can fit into the transmission and control process of influenza A ( H1N1). Using this compartment model, we simulated the transmission process of influenza A (H1N1) in China and the United States between April 2009 and May 2010. Then we discussed the efficacy of contagion prevention and control methods through parameter sensitivity analysis of this compartment model. Based on a contrast of the prevention and control strategies in the US and China, this paper provides reference for prevention and control of similar infectious diseases in the future.