2015年3-5月 T639、ECMWF 及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

提对2015年3—5月 T639、ECMWF（文中简称 EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hRa 温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能，EC 模式对西风指数、850 hRa 温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统，三个模式预报能力相当，120 h 时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压，但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。%The performances of medium-range forecasts are verified and compared for T639,ECMWF (EC) and Japan models from March to May 2015.The results show that the three models have good performance on predicting the large-scale circulation and 850 hRa temperature evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas.EC shows a better performance on westerly index and 850 hRa temperature than the other two models.Taking the sandstorm process from 31 March to 1 April as a case,it is found that all the three models have predicted the intensity and affected range of the major weather for sandstorm,but compared with observations some biases also exist.