2017年3-5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

The performance of medium-range forecasts is verified and compared for the T639,ECMWF and Japan models from March to May 2017.The results show that T639 and ECMWF models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well.T639 and ECMWF models perform well in predicting the transition of temperature at 850 hPa,as they all have smaller biases for Southern China than for Northern China,but ECMWF model shows a better comprehensive performance than the other one.Taking the sandstorm process seen in 3-7 May as a case,we see that ECMWF model is most effective in medium-range forecasting of the surface high pressure system which incurred the sandstorm weather process this time.%文章对2017年3-5月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验.结果表明:T639模式和ECMWF模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能.T639模式和ECMWF模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,其中对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区,ECMWF综合预报效果最好.此外,选取了2017年5月3-7日的沙尘天气过程进行个例分析,发现ECMWF模式对此次过程的海平面高压系统的中期预报指示意义较好.