连云港近海风速分布特征及分区预报

摘要

Based on the observing data from island station, the characteristics of wind speed in Lian Yun-gang were analyzed and the sub-regions of wind prediction were set up. The result of WRF model showed that the model could resolve the variation trend of wind,speed, but the deviation of the wind speed was high. The results also showed that the model forecasting performance of wind speed was lower for the special geographical region. After the adjustment with the Kalman filter method, the forecasting accuracy of wind speed was improved for the island station and all the other sub-regions.%利用连云港海岛站资料,分析了连云港沿海风速的分布特征,在此基础上对连云港沿海进行了风速预报的分区；应用本地业务运行的WRFV3模式对近海风速进行预报,结果表明,模式预报能较好的反映海岛站风速的变化趋势,但在风速大小的预报上存在较大误差,同时,WRFV3模式对4个站的风速预报准确率分析表明,模式对特殊地理位置区域的预报准确率比较低；用Kalman滤波方法对本地业务运行的WRF模式的风速预报结果进行订正,结果表明,经过Kalman滤波方法订正后,对近海海岛站上风速的预报效果有明显的改善,且分区内其他站的预报效果也相应得到提高.