In the tropical area Characteristic low pressure wind velocity forecasting manner which

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and a device for predicting the wind velocity of a tropical cyclone while accurately taking regional characteristics of each of specific points into consideration without depending on experience or judgement by human.;SOLUTION: First of all, generally being offered tropical cyclone characteristics prediction information is obtained (step S1), and tropical cyclone characteristics prediction information for every hour is calculated by an interpolation method and the like (S2). Then, similar tropical cyclones are extracted (S3), and five tropical cyclones are selected in increasing order of a correlation coefficient (S5). As to the five tropical cyclones, a wind velocity in the wind velocity prediction point is read from a database (S6), and subsequently, model wind velocity values of the current tropical cyclone and the similar tropical cyclones in the past in the wind velocity prediction point are calculated (S7). A correction value of a wind velocity in the wind velocity prediction point is calculated (S8), and a predicted wind velocity V of the current tropical cyclone is calculated (S9). A predicted wind direction is also calculated (S10).;COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO