基于相似案例分析的风险投资项目选择方法研究

摘要

Selection of the venture capital project bears heavily on the success or failure of a venture capital investment.In recent years,how to select the venture capital project has become an important research topic.The objective of this paper is to propose a method for selecting venture capital project based on similar cases analysis.First,the similarity between each historical case and each target case is calculated.Then,the similar historical cases are retrieved based on the similarity threshold set beforehand,and the similar historical case set concerning each target case is constructed.Further,the risk values and benefit values with regard to each target case are calculated based on the similar historical cases and the current actual situation.On the basis of the above,the desirable venture capital project are selected through the investigation of comprehensive evaluation values of venture capital project involved in each target case with respect to the project risk and the project benefit.Finally,a case study is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the method proposed in this paper.%风险投资前的项目选择对于风险投资成败有着重要影响,如何进行风险投资项目的选择,是近年来一直备受关注的重要研究课题.本文针对风险投资项目选择问题,提出了一种基于相似案例分析的决策分析方法.在该方法中,首先,计算历史案例与目标案例间的相似度;然后,依据事先设定的相似度阈值来提取相似历史案例,并构建对应于各目标案例的相似历史案例集;进一步地,依据相似历史案例并结合当前实际情况来进行目标案例涉及的风险因素值和收益指标值的计算;在此基础上,通过综合考察目标案例的风险投资项目关于项目风险和项目收益两方面的综合评价值来进行风险投资项目的优选.最后,通过一个实例分析来说明了本文提出方法的可行性与有效性.