基于RM-DEMATEL的交通运输低碳化能力影响因素分析

摘要

为了深入推进节能减排,从根本上实现低碳化交通运输,需明确交通运输低碳化能力的影响因素并对其进行分析.提出RM-DEMATEL方法,对传统决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)模型采用专家赋值法确定直接影响矩阵的主观性缺点进行改进,更加客观地对交通运输低碳化能力的影响因素进行识别.综合技术驱动力、管理驱动力、产业实力及运输结构四方面要素,建立多层交通运输低碳化能力影响因素指标体系,并对中国交通运输系统进行实证研究,研究结果表明技术驱动力因素和管理驱动力因素分别为中国交通运输低碳化能力的根本影响因素和主要影响因素,为低碳交通运输的发展策略提供理论依据.%In order to further promote energy conservation and emission reduction and fundamentally realize low-carbon transportation,the influencing factors of transportation low-carbonization capacity need to be definitely found out and analyzed.The RM-DEMATEL method is proposed to improve the disadvantage of traditional Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model by subjectively using expert evaluation method to determine the direct impact matrices.The method could identify the influencing factors of transportation low-carbonization capacity more objectively.The multi-layer influencing factors index system is established,which is integrated by the four aspects of technical driving force,managerial driving force,industrial strength and transport structure.An empirical study of Chinese transportation system is carried out,the results show that the technical driving force factors are fundamental factors and managerial driving force factors are main factors of China's transportation low-carbonization capacity.This paper provides a theoretical basis for the strategy of the development of low-carbon transportation.