基于模糊理论的智能电网信息通信系统风险评估

摘要

In order to solve the problem of non-additivity among risk evaluation indexes in smart grid information communication system,a comprehensive risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory of information communication system in smart grid was proposed.For the proposed model,firstly the risk evaluation index system of smart grid information and communication system was built,and the subjective analytic hierarchy process and the objective entropy method were adopted to calculate weight of the single risk index,then the fuzzy measure of each layer index set was calculated according to the weight.At the same time,the comprehensive evaluation matrix was constructed according to the membership of the risk index relative to the risk level.The evaluation value of the indicator set is constantly integrated by the fuzzy integral vector,and the comprehensive risk evaluation value of smart grid information communication system can be obtained according to the principle of maximum membership.Finally,an example analysis of the proposed model shows that the proposed model can solve the non-additivity problem among the indexes well,and it can carry out effective risk analysis and prediction for the smart grid information communication system.%针对智能电网信息通信系统风险评估指标间的非可加性问题,给出一种基于模糊理论的智能电网信息通信系统风险评估方案.首先,建立智能电网信息通信系统风险评估指标体系;其次,采用主观层次分析法及客观熵值法计算单风险指标的权重,再根据权重计算各层指标集合的模糊测度;然后,根据风险指标相对于风险等级的隶属度构建综合评价矩阵,通过模糊积分向量不断融合指标集的评估值;最后,智能电网信息通信系统的综合风险评估值可以按照最大隶属度的原则得到.实例验证结果表明,该方案能较好解决风险评估指标间的非可加性问题,对智能电网信息通信系统能有效进行风险分析和预测.