基于多元t-copula模型的未决赔款准备金

摘要

在非寿险精算领域中，单业务准备金的估计是研究的重点，而在非寿险公司对所有业务的总准备金水平进行评估时，不同业务之间存在着一定的相关性，将单业务的准备金进行简单的相加得到的总准备金往往大于实际理赔金额。因此，利用多元t-copula模型，从理论到实际数据等方面研究不同业务间的相关性，从而得出准备金的估计值，并通过风险边际的下降来说明在总准备金的估计中研究不同业务间的相关问题的必要性。%In the non-life insurance actuarial field, people focus on the study of the single business re-serve estimates rather than on the evaluation total reserve of all the business’ s level. There is a certain re-lationship among different business. simple summing reserves of all single businesses The total reserves by greater than the actual amount of claims tended to be. The tolal reserves estimates were drawn after using multivariate t-copulas model in exploring the correlation among different types of businesses. The finding of the deline of marginal risk showed that,it was necessary to explore the correlation among different types of businesses in the study of total reserve estimates.