人民币汇率波动是否影响我国进出口贸易--基于中日贸易的经验分析

摘要

The existing research did not give a consistency conclusion whether RMB exchange volitility has a significant effect on China’s import and export trade or not .Based on the import and export demand equa-tions ,this paper established the import and export demand cointegration models to study Sino-Japanese trade decision factors .Research found that RMB exchange volitility had no significant influence on the im-port and export trade ,the two countries’ respective domestic income had the biggest positive significant influence on bilateral trade .The RMB exchange rate against the yen and the brokeout of financial crisis had significantly positive effects on export to China ,but both had no significant effect on China’s imports .Then the paper analyzed the reasons behind the results and put forward relevant policy suggestions .%　　人民币汇率波动是否对我国进出口贸易有显著影响，现有研究并未给出一致性结论。文章基于进出口需求方程，通过建立中日进出口需求协整模型来研究中日贸易的决定因素。研究发现，中日两国各自的国内收入对进出口贸易都有较大的正向显著影响，人民币汇率波动对中日进出口贸易没有显著影响，人民币兑日元实际汇率水平和金融危机爆发对中国对日出口有显著正向影响，但对中国的进口没有显著影响。在分析这一结果背后原因的同时，提出适当放宽日元兑人民币汇率浮动范围，进一步推动人民币国际化进程；加快中日两国建立自由贸易区的谈判，促进双边贸易进一步发展；优化出口产品结构，提高产品附加值等政策建议。