中国民航与高铁竞争因素的敏感性分析研究

摘要

在系统分析现有旅客民航与高铁出行方式选择影响因素的基础上,从购票、到站、中转换乘、出行、离站全过程视角全面科学地设计了旅客出行选择行为实验,获取旅客中长距离出行过程中民航与高铁的RP数据,将高铁作为参考方式建立BL方式选择模型,获取显著性影响因素的参数估计结果,并进行显著性影响因素的敏感性分析.研究结果表明:运行时间、出行距离、出行费用、到站时间、准时性是影响民航和高铁竞争的显著性因素;运行时间、出行距离、出行费用的弹性值分别为-3.05、1.39、1.07,绝对值均大于1,表明运行时间、出行距离、出行费用对高铁竞争下的民航选择富有弹性;到站时间、准时性的弹性值分别为0.41、-0.82,绝对值均小于1,表明到站时间和准时性对高铁竞争下民航的选择缺乏弹性.研究成果可为运输资源合理配置及交通运输政策制定提供重要的科学依据.%The impact factors of the passenger travel choice were made a penetrating analysis between civil aviation and high-speed rail.Travel choice behavior experiment was designed from the perspective of whole trip chain including ticket stage,access stage,travel stage,transfer stageand egress stage.The passenger RP data was obtainedabout civil aviation and high-speed rail in long distance passenger,and was used to establishthe binary logistic model takingthe high-speed rail as a reference.The parameter estimation and elastic analysis of significant factors were made to draw a conclusion.The research shows that running time,travel distance,fare,access time and punctuality are all the significant factors to affect the passenger travel choicebetween civil aviation and highspeed rail.The elasticity values of running time,travel distance,fareare respectively-3.05,1.39,1.07,and the absolute value of above factors are higher than 1,indicating that the three factors have higher sensitivity to the civil aviationchoice under the competition of high-speed rail.However,the elastic value of access time andpunctuality are respectively 0.41,-0.82,the absolute value of twofactors were less than 1,indicating that access time andpunctuality are of inelastic to the civil aviation choice under the competition of high-speed rail.The research results can provide an important basis for transport policy and the rational allocation of transport capacity.