The study aims to clarify the relationship between the various internal elerments and the coupling relationship between the subsystems ,and determine the main factors which influence industrial transformation of old urban industrial areas .Take Tumen region in Xi’an for example ,the industrial transformation system of the old industrial area is divided into four subsystems :human resources subsystem ,the second industrial subsystem ,the tertiary industrial subsystem and the resources and environment subsystem .Then the system dynamics method is used to establish the system dynamics simulation model for the urban industrial transformation of an old industrial area .Based on the comparison between the simulation programs ,the best program for Tumen regional industrial restructuring and development is determined ,w hich provides guidance for the sustainable regional economic and social development .%为了厘清产业转型内部各要素之间的关系和子系统间耦合关系，明确影响产业转型的主要因素，本文以西安土门地区为例，将城市老工业区产业转型系统分为人力资源子系统、二产业子系统、三产业子系统和资源环境子系统4个子系统，运用系统动力学方法建立城市老工业区产业转型的系统动力学仿真模型，对该区域经济发展和产业结构进行预测。通过多个方案仿真，比较优选出适合该区域产业转型发展的最佳方案，为推进地区经济社会可持续发展提供决策依据。
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