福州市道路交通事故灰色预测模型的构建与实现

摘要

分析了GM(1,1) 模型和Verhulst模型的特点和适用场合,针对福州市道路交通事故呈现S形状态的波动过程,建立了灰色Verhulst预测模型.对福州市1995～2004年的道路交通事故进行实例分析,verhlst预测模型和GM(1,1)预测模型的平均相对误差分别为11.9%和33.0%,可见Verhulst模型的预测精度明显优于GM(1,1)模型.%The properties and application situation of GM(1,1)model and Verhulst model were discussed.A Verhulst prediction model was put forward according to the fluctuated S-shape sequences of road traffic accidents in Fuzhou.With the data of traffic accidents occurred from1995 to 2004, an example was given to illustrate prediction accuracy.The predictive errors of Verhulst model and GM(1,1)model are 11.9％ and 33.0％ respectively, which indicates that the predictive errors of Verhulst model is better than that of GM(1,1)model.