基于BEER模型的人民币汇率失调研究

摘要

基于均衡汇率BEER模型,采用2000年第一季度到2008年第四季度期间的数据,运用协整技术得出基本经济因素向量对均衡汇率的影响系数,估计出样本期间内人民币汇率的失调程度.结果表明,政府支出对人民币均衡汇率影响最大,贸易条件和对外净资产对均衡汇率具有正向作用;利用模型得出的人民币均衡汇率方程对当前人民币汇率进行测算,样本期间内人民币大都处在低估的状态;另外,2005年的汇改使得人民币汇率在3个季度内连续升值并接近均衡,长期内人民币仍有升值的压力.%Data of the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the last quarter of 2008 were taken as sample. Co- integration was applied to get the impact coefficient of the vectors of basic economic factors on equilibrium exchange rate. The degree of current RMB exchange rate imbalance in sample period was estimated based on equilibrium exchange rate BEER model. The results show that,government expenditure has the greatest impact on RMB equilibrium exchange rate; terms of trade and net foreign assets change in the same direction with equilibrium exchange rate;measuring current RMB exchange rate through the RMB equilibrium exchange rate equation from the model. It showed that, RMB was mostly underestimated in sample period;In addition,the exchange rate reform in 2005 made RMB exchange rate appreciate in a row in three quarters and be close to equilibrium,in long term, there is still upward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.