天津港危化品公路集疏运爆燃事故风险分析

摘要

天津港危化品大部分通过疏港公路运输。在运输过程中，由于疏港公路交通流量密集、各种车辆混行，在恶劣天气状况下，可能发生危化品车辆碰撞，导致危化品泄漏，进而发生爆燃，造成大规模的群死群伤事件。通过测算天津港主要疏港公路——海滨大道现有交通流量，模拟主要危化品车辆发生碰撞后的爆炸半径以及可能的人员伤亡损失情况，对天津港危化品公路运输爆燃风险做出定量分析。模拟结果表明，爆燃事件一旦发生，将有至少2人死亡。%In Tianjin port, most hazardous cargos are transported by consolidation and distribution road. It is likely to cause serious personnel dead and injured in a crash involving hazardous cargo truck on consolidation and distribution road due to dense traffic flow, mixture of various vehicles and bad weather condition. The traffic flow of Haibin Road, which is the main consolidation and distribution road of Tianjin harbor, was calculated. The deflagra⁃tion radiuses of main hazardous cargo were also calculated. Transportation risk of hazardous materials was analyzed quantitatively. The simulation results show that at least 2 people will be killed if deflagration happens.