略阳县泥石流灾害风险评估

摘要

通过略阳县泥石流地质灾害调查资料，应用单沟泥石流风险评价方法的危害度计算模型，逐一分析其危险性、易损性并进行风险性评价，得出该县泥石流隐患中极低风险、低风险、中风险、高风险、极高风险出现的概率分别为16．88％、28．44％、27．64％、19．78％、7．44％，其分析结果可为该县汛期地质灾害预警预报及今后治理次序提供参考依据，并针对该县地质灾害预警体系建设提出了相应的参考建议。%Through the surveying data of Lueyang＇ s geological disasters resulted from debris flow and by using the numerical models for harm degree of single debris flow hazard and risk assessment methods, the occurrence probabilities of extremely low risk, low risk, high risk and extremely high risk of the debris flow hidden hazard in this county are abtained to be 16.88%, 28.44%, 27.64%, 19.78% and 7.44% respectively. The analysis results could provide reference bases for the geological disaster warning and forecasting during the flood season in this county. At last, some good proposals are put forward for the further construction of early waming and precaution system in this county.