基于Logit模型的道路交通统计生命价值

摘要

The value of a statistical life ( VOSL) in road traffic is an important index for economic evaluation on road safety programs. The VOSL model is established based on the binary Logit modeL Then the route-choice questionnaire is designed based on the stated choice method ( SCM) and the orthogonal experiment method. The survey is implemented regarding Dalian private drivers as respondents. Finally, the model is estimated based on the SCM data by Gauss. The result indicates that the VOSL in road traffic for Dalian private drivers is about 360,000 RMB, and the model has a high accuracy. Moreover, the VOSL in road traffic is significantly influenced by four individual characteristics such as one' s monthly income, traffic experience, car insurance and education background.%道路交通统计生命价值是道路交通安全项目经济评价的重要指标.首先基于二项Logit模型建立道路交通统计生命价值的评价模型；结合意愿选择法和正交试验法设计路径出行选择的意愿调查问卷,并以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施意向调查；最后利用意向调查数据,借助GAUSS软件进行模型标定.研究结果表明,大连市私家车出行者的道路交通统计生命价值约为36万元,模型具有较高精确性；道路交通统计生命价值受个人月收入、驾龄、车保险情况和学历四个个人因素显著影响.