ATIS环境下随机动态路网行程时间可靠性

摘要

To evaluate the travel time reliability of stochastic dynamic network with ATIS, this study classi-fies travelers into two groups:with and without the information receiving devise. Both of them are assumed to follow the stochastic dynamic user optimal (SDUO) principle to dynamically choose routes. A route-based mixed SDUO fixed point model is developed according to the dynamic equilibrium theory, which has been proved to have at least one fixed point. The stochastic dynamic demand is described as a discrete random variable sequence. Then, a travel time reliability evaluation procedure is proposed based on the Monte Carlo simulation and diagonalized method of successive average (MSA) for stochastic dynamic road network with ATIS. Then, the feasibility of the proposed approach is tested in an example network. The results show that OD travel time reliability varies as departure time interval changes, and under this dynamic case, the increas-ing ATIS market penetration rate degrades travel time reliability instead of improving reliability.%为评价随机动态道路网络系统在ATIS环境下的行程时间可靠性，将出行者群体划分为装载和未装载信息接收设备两类，并假设他们均遵循随机动态用户最优原则(SDUO)进行动态路径选择，运用动态均衡理论建立了基于路径的混合SDUO不动点模型，并证明该模型至少存在一个不动点。使用离散随机变量序列描述需求的随机动态变化，基于Monte Carlo模拟和对角化相继平均算法(MSA)，提出了ATIS环境下随机动态路网的行程时间可靠性评价方法。随后通过算例验证了可靠性评价方法的可行性。数值结果表明：OD行程时间可靠性随出发时段动态变化，且在动态情形下，扩大ATIS市场占有率并不能进一步提高可靠性，反而可能会导致可靠性下降。