多式联运网络风险传播建模与仿真

摘要

The dynamic theory of complex networks is introduced into the study of the risk communication of multimodal transportation network. This paper aims to reveal the complex internal rule of the risk communication in the multimodal transportation network. Firstly, the applicability of complex network dynamics model is described. Secondly, the risk communication process is deeply analyzed. Then, the risk communication dynamics model is built based on the disaster spreading dynamic model. And then the simulation experiment of the risk communication is designed in multimodal transportation network. Finally, the risk communication range is simulated from three aspects, such as node type, initial risk value and node risk threshold. The research shows that the risk communication dynamics model in this paper is in line with the process and can reflect the process of the risk communication of the multimodal transportation network. At the same time, the simulation experiment reveals the risk communication rule based on the differentiation of network nodes, and can provide certain theoretical basis for the risk control of the multimodal transportation network.%将复杂网络传播动力学理论引入多式联运网络风险传播问题，旨在进一步揭示风险传播的复杂内在规律。首先对复杂网络动力学模型在多式联运网络的适用性进行阐述；接着对多式联运网络风险传播过程进行深入分析，进而基于灾害蔓延动力学模型建立了多式联运网络风险传播动力学模型，并对多式联运网络风险传播仿真实验进行详细设计；最后分别从风险传播源节点类型、初始风险值及节点风险阈值3个方面的差异对风险传播范围进行仿真分析。研究表明，本文建立的风险传播动力学模型能够反映多式联运网络风险传播的过程，基于网络节点差异化特征的仿真过程揭示了风险在多式联运网络中的传播规律，可为多式联运网络风险控制提供一定的理论依据。