基于父母出行特性的学生出行方式选择研究

摘要

研究家庭成员出行方式对学生出行方式选择的影响，可以更有针对性地制定学生出行需求管理策略。以学生出行为研究对象，将父母出行方式作为选择方程的因变量，学生出行方式作为结果方程的因变量，运用Heckman Probit模型建立基于父母出行方式选择的学生出行方式选择模型，利用海宁市数据进行验证。结果显示，父母选择小汽车出行对学生选择小汽车和电动自行车出行有显著正向影响；父母选择公交出行对学生选择小汽车和步行出行有显著负向影响；父母出行方式对学生选择公交出行无显著影响；小汽车拥有情况、是否有人接送、公交满意度和出行距离对学生出行方式选择影响显著。%Family members' travel mode usually impact on students' travel mode choice. It is necessary to explore its influence mechanism and then to develop students travel demand management strategy. From the analysis of students' travel behavior and travel characteristics, this paper establishes a Heckman Probit model to examine students' travel mode choice model based on parents' travel mode choice, by taking parents' travel mode choice as the dependent variable of selection equation and students' travel mode choice as the dependent variable of outcome equation. Application in Haining city and its results show that parents' choice of auto-mode has a significant positive effect on students' choice of auto-mode and electric bicycle, parents' choice of transit-mode has a significant negative impact on students' choice of auto-mode and walk, parents' choice has no significant impact on students' transit-mode choice. Sensitivity analysis show that car ownership, someone pick up, bus satisfaction and travel distance are the key factors and which affects students' travel mode a lot.