基于面板数据的城市公共交通经济贡献性分析

摘要

To quantify the contribution of public transit to urban economy, Three panel data models are set up from three aspects of investment in fixed assets, municipal district population density and population employment, respectively, with public transportation development indicators, Jiangsu province as an example for empirical analysis is investigated. Study shows that public transit can significantly boost urban fixed asset investment, public transit mode at initial development stage should be given priority to enlarge the road network, and at relatively mature stage, the mode should be on the capacity delivery; there is a significant dispersion effect on urban population s for public transit, and only while the urbanization development reaching certain level, the transit passenger volume can have a significant role on urban population spatial distribution;With a more mature public transit development level, the role in promoting employment is higher. Transit capacity does not directly affect the urban employment and the urban population. The subway for the promotion of urban fixed asset investment effect is most obvious, followed by the role of improving employment.%为定量考察公共交通对城市经济的贡献性,本文从固定资产投资、市辖区人口密度和就业人口数等方面,分别建立与公共交通发展指标的面板数据模型,并以江苏为例进行了实证分析.研究表明:公共交通能够显著拉动城市固定资产投资,公交初期阶段的发展模式应以加快完善路网为主,相对成熟阶段则应以运力投放为重点;公共交通对城市人口空间分布表现出显著分散效应,并且仅当城镇化发展到一定水平之后,公交客运总量才产生显著作用;公交发展水平越成熟,其对就业的促进作用越高.公交运力并不直接影响城市就业和引导城市人口分散.地铁开通对固定资产投资的促进作用最为明显,其次是就业的拉动作用.