中国交通运输业能源回弹效应研究

摘要

To clarify the reasons of the rising energy consumption in China's transportation sector,this paper estimates the output elasticities of input factors and contribution of technical progress to output growth by using translog production function with the time-series data during 1991 to 2014 period,and then measures the rebound effects in China's transportation sector.The research results show that:There are serious factors mismatch and efficiency loss in China's transportation sector during sample period;There exists rebound effects as well as "back-fire" cases in China's transportation sector in only a few years;There isn't energy rebound effect in China's transport sector in most years for the reasons of without energy efficiency improvement or technical progress.The main reason for the rising of energy consumption in China's transportation sector is the "high growth and high energy intensity" extensive pattern of growth.%为厘清中国交通运输业能源消耗量攀升的原因,本文应用中国交通运输业199卜2014年的数据,基于超越对数生产函数估计出各投入要素的产出弹性和技术进步对产出增长的贡献率,进而测算出中国交通运输业的能源回弹效应.研究结果表明,样本期内中国交通运输业存在较为严重的要素错配与效率损失;中国交通运输业仅有少数年份出现了回弹效应,且有“回火”情形出现;多数年份里中国交通运输业由于能源效率无改善或技术无进步而未形成能源回弹效应,中国交通运输业能源消耗量攀升的主要原因在于行业“高增长、高能耗”的粗放式发展方式.