基于BL模型的居民小汽车出行行为研究

摘要

According to the 4071 interviews about whether citizens travel by car, a binary logit model was constructed. The analysis result showed distance were the most critical factors for whether tr that avell the family income and travel in income, whether having a car license and the travel time greatly g im by car. Besides, family pact the travel behavior,while age and travel purpose are not significant to sensitivity analysis of the key explanatory variables to the test results. the was mode choice. In addition, conducted. The model well the fits%本文采用离散选择模型，对采集到的4071份调查问卷所得到的居民出行情况进行分析，建立了BL模型，定量分析影响小汽车出行行为的影响因素。分析结果表明：家庭月收入、出行距离和是否拥有驾照对小汽车出行的影响最大，出行费用、出行时间等因素对是否选择小汽车出行也有显著影响，而年龄、出行目的等因素则对是否选择小汽车出行的影响不显著。随后，对小汽车出行概率影响显著的因素做了敏感性分析，模型检验的结果说明该模型具有较好的精度。