定量评估民用飞机的航线平均油耗水平是优化飞机型号设计、制定碳排放收费政策的前提。论文通过统计分析国内常见民用客机的航线生产运营数据，运用灰色关联分析法对影响民用飞机航线平均耗油水平的主要因素进行分析。为定量评估民用飞机航线平均油耗水平，本文建立了以航距和最大起飞重量为解释变量的非线性统计回归模型，模型的拟合优度达到0.9945。实证分析结果表明，该模型可靠性较高。%To quantitatively evaluate the airplane-route average fuel consumption and its influencing factors can lay a solid foundation for both aircraft design and carbon emissions’ tax policy. First, the airline’s operating data of the typical aircraft types was analyzed by statistics. Second, the flight distance and aircraft maximum take-off weight as the main factors influencing airplane-route fuel consumption were determined with gray relational analysis. Third, these two factors were used to construct a nonlinear regression model for airplane-route fuel consumption. The fitting result showed that the coefficient of determination could reach 0.994 5, so the proposed model was feasible.
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