一种民用客机航线平均油耗评估模型

摘要

The existing fuel evaluation models could not accurately direct both civil aircraft marketing anal -ysis and aviation carbon emissions policy-makings .In order to solve these shortcomings , the statistical data of types of aircraft operated by domestic airlines are used to analyze the main micro-factors the level of av-erage fuel consumption impacted with gray correlation analysis and the correlation coefficient method .Then the regression approach is utilized to analyze the relationship between route aircraft fuel consumption and sector distance , in which the impact of designing range and seat capacity on regression parameters are suf-ficiently considered .Finally, the analytical expression is presented to describe the mean fuel consumption model for civil passenger aircraft .275 data generating from 11 aircraft types are used to estimate the pa-rameters in the model and the fit goodness reaches 0.9979.Furthermore, the predicting tests using 16 data from 11 aircraft types indicate the average relative error is 0.0379.Hence, the model is practical and fea-sible owing to the high forecasting accuracy .%为了解决现有燃油评估模型无法准确指导民机市场需求分析和航空碳排放收费政策制定的缺陷，通过对航空公司各主要机型航线生产运营数据的统计分析，运用灰色关联分析法与相关系数法确定了影响航线平均油耗水平的主要宏观影响因素，采用回归分析法分析了机型航线燃油消耗水平与航段距离的关系，并确定了民机设计航程与座位数对线性回归参数的影响，以此构建了民用客机航线平均油耗水平模型的解析表达式。利用11种样本机型产生的275条数据对解析表达式进行参数估计，拟合优度达到0．9979，通过对11种机型产生的16条样本数据进行预测检验，发现统计回归模型的平均相对误差为0．0379，预测精度较高，因此模型切实可行。