基于前景理论的出行方式选择研究

摘要

城市出行选择行为理论研究可为城市交通需求管理(TDM)提供理论依据。考虑到城市出行环境的不确定性特征，而前景理论更适合描述不确定环境下出行者的实际决策行为。在规定的到达时刻约束下，根据出行预留时间与出行方式出行时间的关系，确定了不同权重的期望出行成本参考点模型，建立了基于前景理论的出行方式选择行为模型。构建不同类别出行者和不同出行预留时间场景下的算例，分别对基于期望效用理论和前景理论模型的出行方式选择结果进行对比分析。结果表明：其一，在不同的出行预留时间场景下，对应不同时间成本和货币成本的权重参考点模型更符合出行者出行方式选择时的心理特征；其二，地铁方式因出行时间稳定受到更多出行者的选择。%Urban traveler’s choice behavior theory can provide a theoretical basis for the urban traffic demand management. Considering the uncertainty of the characteristics of urban travel environment, the prospect theory is more suitable to describe the traveler’s actual decision behavior under an uncertain environment. Subjected to the time constraints from trip start to arrival, the different weight expected travel cost model of the reference points was determined according to the relationship with reservation time travel and travel time of a travel mode. The travel mode choice behavior model based on the prospect theory was established. The examples with different categories of travelers and different scenarios of reservation time travel were given, and the travel mode choice results based on the expected utility theory and prospect theory model were compared. The results show that: Firstly, under different scenarios of reservation time travel, when the reference point model are corresponding to different weight relationship of time costs and money costs, it is more in line with the psychological characteristics of traveler’s mode choice; Secondly, due to the travel time stable, more travelers prefer subway than others.