基于Logistic回归模型的高铁客运市场细分

摘要

本文以渝利高铁的旅客运输市场为研究对象,通过设计并发放SP/RP调查问卷,获得4164份沿线旅客出行特征与自身特征的随机样本数据.通过分层抽样并构建基于Logistic回归方法的分类模型对样本数据进行处理,进而进行客运市场细分,得到三个细分子市场:外出务工型、非经济出行型和商务出行型.然后从年龄、月收入与职业等3个指标进行子市场的特征描述,其分析成果有助于渝利高铁运营者为实现客运效益最优进行差异化产品设计.%This paper targets the market segmentation problem of Yu-li High-Speed Railway. Questionnaires and surveys are designed to collect the personal and travel characteristics of the railway passengers. 4164 stated preference and revealed preference records are obtained via stratified sampling. A logistic regression-based classification model is then used to segment the market into three groups: trip induced by migrant workers, non-economic trips, and business trips. Statistical analysis is then made regarding the age, income, and profession of each sub-market. The findings can help the operators of Yu-li High-speed Railway for differentiated marketing and revenue maximization.