基于HMM的食品安全风险预测方法研究

摘要

以乳品为例，提出了一种基于隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)的食品安全风险预测方法。依据 HACCP 对乳品供应链进行分析，找出供应链各个环节的关键控制点，并将其危害影响因素作为 HMM 的量化指标。分析时将供应链分为4个环节，每个环节最终的安全等级概率作为下一环节的初始状态概率分布，利用 HMM 预测供应链风险等级和计算风险值，从而为供应链风险评价提供依据。%Taking dairy products as the research subjects,a food safety risk assessment method based on the Hidden Markov Model(HMM) was developed.The critical control point for each sector of the supply chain was found out with the method of hazard analysis critical control point.Those critical points can be used as quantitative indicators of HMM.According to the characteristics HMM model,the supply chain was divided into four sectors.The ultimate probability of each sector is the initial state probability distribution of the next part.Finally the level of risk in the supply chain and risk level can be calcu-lated with HMM,which can provide a reference for supply chain risk assessment.