基于D-S证据理论空中交通管制系统能力评估

摘要

空中交通管制系统能力评估存在底层指标类型多样、评估信息不确定的问题。为此，提出一种基于 D-S 证据理论推理的评估方法。该方法构造信度规则库，将多种类型的不确定性数据换成统一的信度结构，通过证据推理方法获得空中交通管制系统的能力满足度分布。以某空中交通管制中心系统能力评估为例说明方法的可行性和有效性。%There exist various kinds of low level indices and uncertainty of evaluation information in the capability evaluation for air traffic control system. To solve this problem,a novel evaluation methodology using Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence reasoning is proposed. Firstly, the rule base is built with belief structure, and the input information is transformed into a pre-defined form. Then the activation weight of input is calculated. After that, the final assessment distribution is obtained by using evidence reasoning for index aggregation. The capability evaluation of a certain air traffic control system is investigated, so as to illustrate the feasiblity and effectiveness of the new methodology.