唐山生产性服务业与制造业互动发展关系探讨--基于 VAR 模型的实证检验

摘要

Producer services derived from manufacturing industries,but are attached to it.It is of great significance for the promotion of both industrial structure adjustment and economic struc-ture adjustment to explore the correlation between them.The authors of this paper have studies the correlation between producer service industries and manufacturing industries in Tangshan through vector auto-regression model(VAR).The results show that there is a lasting and stable equilibrium relationship between the producer service industries and the manufacturing industries in Tangshan,that the influence of producer services sub-industries on the manufacturing indus-tries are many and varied,and that the impact of producer services on the manufacturing indus-tries in Tangshan is positive.The authors suggest that the government should increase the finan-cial investment in productive service industry and pay more attention to the personnel training, and accelerate the construction of the marketing platforms.%生产性服务业从制造业内部发展起来，又贯穿于制造业发展的始终。探索两者之间的相关性，对推动产业结构调整与经济结构调整具有重要意义。文章应用向量自回归模型(简称 VAR 模型)探讨了唐山生产性服务业和制造行业之间的互动关系。实证检验结果表明：唐山生产性服务业与制造业之间存在持久稳定的均衡关系，生产性服务业子行业对制造业具有不同的影响效果。唐山生产性服务业对制造业的冲击作用由积极变消极。建议选择性地发展生产性服务业，且政府应加大对生产性服务业的财政投入，注重相关人才培养，加快构建市场平台。