Demand impact changes the pressure distribution of the traffic system, even leads to paralysis of the system, hence it is necessary to study this problem. The recovery time is an important influence index of the demand impact on the transportation system. This paper divides the passengers into three categories and determines their transition probabilities and distribution respectively based on the principle of maximum utility and maximum entropy, and calculates the recovery time of each traffic node according to its capacity. Therefore the influence of demand impact on the traffic system can be determined, which provides relative decisions with support. Finally, an example is used to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.%需求冲击往往会改变各交通站点的压力分布,严重时甚至造成交通系统的瘫痪,因而研究需求冲击对交通系统的影响就显得很有必要,其中恢复时间是了解需求冲击对交通系统影响程度的一个重要指标.本文根据乘客偏好的不同将人群划分为3类,依据效用最大准则和极大熵原理,确定其转移概率,在此基础上,推演出3类人群在每个时刻的不同分布状况,以自我消化能力为标准,确定各交通站点的恢复时间.据此了解需求冲击对各交通站点的影响,并为相关决策提供参考依据.最后,以一个算例验证了该模型的可行性和有效性.
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