能源消费及其产生的环境影响问题是社会各界关注的焦点，也是学术界研究的热点。本文基于向量自回归模型（即VAR模型）的分析方法，选取1994–2013年福建省相关能源消费、经济增长等指标，分析福建省能源消费碳排放情况，结果表明：影响福建省碳排放量的主要因素是能源消费总量和能源强度，且两者作用相反能源消费总量对碳排放起正向作用，而能源强度则表现出了反向作用。碳排放对能源强度的响应程度比能源消费总量来得持久和不稳定，但两者的结构冲击对碳排放贡献较大、效果较明显。福建省人均GDP对该省碳排放有负向效应，所以推进绿色GDP有利于降低碳排放。与此同时，福建省城市化水平对碳排放有反向作用，其响应与能源强度表现得较为类似，持久而不稳定，其结构冲击对碳排放贡献较小，但也是降低该省碳排放的重要措施之一。%Energy consumption and the environmental problem are hot issues to both the public and the academic community. This paper selected related index of energy consumption and economic growth from 1994 to 2013,and analyzed energy con-sumption and carbon emission in Fujian province with the vector autoregressive model(the VAR model). The results show that the main factors affecting carbon emissions in Fujian are total energy consumption and energy intensity;the total energy consumption has a positive effect on carbon emissions,while the energy intensity has an adverse influence. The response of carbon emission to the latter is more durable and unstable than that to the former. The structure impact of both factors has bigger contribution and more obvious effect. Per capita GDP of Fujian province has a negative effect on its carbon emission,so advocating green GDP is conducive to reducing carbon emission. On the other hand,the urbanization degree has reverse effect on carbon emission,the response of which to urbanization degree is durable but unstable,just like that to energy intensity. The structure impact of urbanization has smaller contribution to carbon emission,but it is also an important measure of carbon emission reduction in Fujian.
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