基于计量经济模型的耕地变化与经济发展关系研究——以重庆市渝北区为例

摘要

In recent years,with acceleration of economic development,the cultivated land has decreased constantly in amount in Yubei District of Chongqing city. The relativity between cultivated land change and economic growth is more obvious and typical. This paper analyzes the relation between them via econometrics,and gives advises to coordinate economic development and cultivated land protection. The data are tested by Augmented dickey-fuller (ADF) unit root test,Co-integration test,Granger causality test,then it establishes error correction model (ECM) . illustrates the trend of cultivated land decrement rate. The results show that there is a long-term proportionality between cultivated land and economic development,and a consistency between quantitative analysis and the analysis of cultivated land decrement rate which both illustrate that Yubei district's economy is growing at the cost of land consumption,but the city is on the transforming stage from extensive use to intensive use.%随着重庆市渝北区经济快速发展,耕地变化和经济增长二元关系愈为突出.本文从计量经济学角度对两者的关系做实证分析,并提出协调经济发展和保护耕地的建议.通过对采集数据的平稳性、协整性、因果关系检验后,建立误差修正模型,描述耕地损耗率变化趋势,分析表明:渝北区耕地面积变化与经济发展变化具有长期均衡性,计量分析结果和耕地损耗率变化分析结果基本一致,目前渝北区经济增长方式仍以耕地消耗为代价,正在由资源消耗型向资源集约型转变.