中国冬冷夏热地区典型建筑负荷预测模型

摘要

To overcome the shortcomings of the energy consumption prediction models in the application during the design stage, a quick prediction model for energy consumption is proposed based on the decoupling method. Taking typical residential and office buildings in hot summer and cold winter zones as research objects, the influence factors on building energy consumption are classified into intrinsic factors and operational factors on the basis of the heat transfer principle. Then, using the intrinsic factors as the fundamental variables and operational factors as the modified variables, the quick prediction model for the buildings in typical cold and hot zones is proposed based on the decoupling method and the accuracy of the proposed model is verified. The results show that compared to the simulation results of EnergyPlus, the relative error of the prediction model is less than 1.5%; compared with the real operating data of the building, the relative error is 13.14% in 2011 and 8.56% in 2012 due to the fact that the coincidence factor becomes larger than the design value about 16% in 2011 and 13% in 2012. The finding reveals that the proposed model has the advantages of rapid calculation compared with EnergyPlus and Design Builder when predicting building energy consumption in building designs. The energy consumption prediction model is of great practical value in optimal operation and building designs.%为了克服建筑能耗预测模型在建筑设计阶段的应用不足,通过解耦方法建立了建筑能耗快速预测模型.以中国冬冷夏热地区典型建筑为研究对象,依据传热学的基本原理,将影响建筑能耗的因素分为运行属性因素和自有属性因素两类,以运行属性参数为基准,自有属性参数为修正,依据主元解耦方法,建立了典型建筑冷热负荷计算快速预测模型,并验证了该数学模型的准确性.研究结果表明:与软件EnergyPlus相比,该模型计算结果的相对误差在1.5%以下;与实际运行数据相比,该模型计算结果的相对误差在2011年为13.14%,2012年为8.56%,其主要原因是建筑的同时率分别高于设计值16%和13%;与软件EnergyPlus和Design Builder相比,该模型计算快速、简捷且能够用于设计阶段.该建筑能耗快速预测模型对建筑的设计和运行优化具有一定工程价值.