首页> 中文期刊> 《山西大学学报(自然科学版)》 >山西省近50年气温和降水变化基本特征研究

山西省近50年气温和降水变化基本特征研究

         

摘要

The general change patterns of air temperature and precipitation in Shanxi (PR China) were as-sessed from the aspects of the surface meteorological stations, cities, province and regional integrated man-agement planning divisions,based on annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation series (1959 2008) from all the 108 surface stations in the province,and using parametric linear regression test (LR)and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (MK) methods. The MK results showed that (1) with regard to all the stations,the annual mean air temperature exhibited a positive trend at 107 stations(+0.034~+0.896℃/10a),among which a significant positive trend was found at 97 stations and an insignificant positive trend was found at 10 stations, except an insignificant negative trend at one station. The annual precipitati-on exhibited a negative trend at 100 stations(-0. 154~-57. 750 mm/10a) ,among which a significant neg-ative trend was found at 16 stations and an insignificant negative trend was found at 84 stations,except an insignificant positive trend at 8 stations. (2) At the municipal level,the annual mean air temperature dem-onstrated a great significant positive trend in all the 11 cities tested(+0. 181~+0. 417℃/10a), and the annual mean precipitation demonstrated a negative trend in all the cities(-6. 954~-33. 681 mm/10a),a-mong which a significant negative trend was found in 4 cities. (3) At the provincial level,the annual mean air temperature showed an extremely significant positive trend(+0.295℃/10a) ,and the annual precipita-tion showed a significant negative trend(-20. 486 mm/10a). (4) The annual mean air temperature dis-played a significant positive trend in all the 17 integrated management planning divisions tested (+0. 126~+0. 375℃/10a),and the annual mean precipitation displayed a negative trend in all the divi-sions(-2.619 ~-34.417 mm/10a), among which a significant negative trend was found in 5 divisions. As a whole, the significant positive and negative trends were found in air temperature and precipitation,respec-tively, on the provincial scale, while the distinct spatial change patterns were found on the scales of the sta-tions and divisions. The results for air temperature from LR method were in remarkably good agreement with those from MK method,while the results for precipitation from these two methods showed uncertain consistency, which depended on the targets tested from the stations to cities,and to divisions.%根据山西省近50年(1959-2008)108个地面气象观测站的年平均气温和年降水量系列数据,采用参数线性回归检验(LR)和非参数Mann-Kendall检验(MK)两种方法,从观测站、地级市、全省和山西省黄土高原地区综合治理地区4个层面,对山西省气温和降水的时空变化规律进行了研究.MK结果表明,(1)在108个地面站中,除河曲县站的年平均气温呈不显著减少趋势之外,其余107个站的年平均气温均呈升高趋势(+0.034~+0.896℃/10a("a"即"年";以下同).其中97个站的年平均气温显著升高,10个站的年平均气温升高不显著.除曲沃等8个站的年降水量呈不显著增加趋势之外,其余100个站的年降水量均呈减少趋势(-0.154~-57.750 mm/10a).其中16个站的年降水量显著减少,84个站的年降水量减少不显著.(2)11个地级市的年平均气温均表现出非常显著的升高趋势(+0.181~+0.417℃/10a).各市的年平均降水量均呈减少趋势(-6.954~-33.681 mm/10a).其中晋城、晋中、临汾和吕梁4市的降水量显著减少,太原、大同、阳泉、长治、朔州、运城和忻州7市的降水量减少不显著.(3)山西省的年平均气温呈极显著升高趋势(+0.295℃/10a),其年降水量呈显著减少趋势(-20.486 mm/10a).(4)山西省17个综合治理地区的年平均气温均呈显著升高趋势(+0.126~+0.375℃/10a).这17个地区的年平均降水量均呈减少趋势(-2.619~-34.417 mm/10a).其中5个地区的降水量呈显著减少趋势.总之,山西省的气温和降水在整体上分别呈显著升高和显著减少趋势,在较低层面上具有明显的空间异质性.对比分析同时表明,LR和MK所得的结果,就气温而言一致性非常高;就降水而言一致性则不确定(因研究层面不同很高或较低).

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