一种主观的船舶碰撞危险度评价模型

摘要

为比较不同船舶对同一碰撞危险的认识,提出一种主观的船舶碰撞危险度评价模型.在最近会遇距离( Distance to Closest Point of Approach,DCPA)和最近会遇时间(Time to Closest Point of Approach,TCPA)作参数的碰撞危险度计算模型的基础上,加入船舶安全距离圈和最晚施舵时间等主观因素,建立新的碰撞危险度计算模型.利用该模型计算并比较安全距离圈大小和最晚施舵时间不同的船舶碰撞危险度.结果表明,安全距离圈大小和最晚施舵时间不同的船舶操纵者对同一会遇态势下碰撞危险的认识是不同的.%To compare the understanding of the same collision risk of different ships, a subjective evaluation model of ships' collision risk is proposed. On the basis of the collision risk calculation model which uses Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) as parameters, the subjective factors such as ship' s safety circle and the last minute of rudder steering, etc, are introduced to create a new calculation model of the collision risk. The new model is used to calculate and compare the collision risk of ships with different safety circle sizes and different last minute of rudder steering. The results show that the understanding of collision risk of ships with different safety circle sizes and different last minute of steering rudder in the same encounter situation is not same.