基于灰色理论的特种设备安全事故预测研究

摘要

The absolute number of deaths and the death toll in ten thousand special equipments during the "twelfth five-year" special equipment accident in China were forecasted by applying the grey theory,with the aid of Excel and Matlab software tools,and on the basis of the statistics data in recent years in China.The results showed that the simulation values of the deaths and the death toll in ten thousand special equipments from the special equipment accident based on the grey theory fit well with the real values.The accuracy test of the forecasting model was good;It provides a basis and reference for special equipment safety policy and scientific regulatory decision-making.%应用灰色理论,借助于EXCEL及MATLAB软件工具,并以我国近年实际数据为基础,对我国“十二五”期间特种设备安全事故的绝对死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数进行了预测.结果表明,基于灰色理论的特种设备事故的死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数的模拟值和真实值较吻合,预测模型精度检验为好；预测指标可为特种设备安全政策制订和科学监管决策提供依据及参考.