基于属性识别理论的油气管道施工质量风险评价

摘要

In order to realistically evaluate the risk on construction quality of oil &gas pipelines, a risk evaluation method was put forward based on attribute recognition model.Firstly, the attribute space matrix was established and orderly divided.The combination weight assigning of entropy weight method with objective weight assigning and G1 method with subjective weight assigning was applied to determine the weight and attribute measurement of each e-valuation index.The confidence criterion was used to recognize the model and obtain the possibility level of quality reduction in pipelines construction.Finally, the result of quality reduction in pipelines construction was evaluated, and the risk grade was obtained by risk matrix.The given example showed that the construction quality of oil&gas pipelines is greatly affected by the quality and wrong behaviors of personnel, construction technology and manage-ment method.The possibility that the construction quality of oil&gas pipelines will reduce in section S4 and S5 is higher.There is a high level of risk in section S4 and S5 by risk matrix.Therefore, attention and concern should be paid to manage and control the risk factors in section S4 and S5 by pipeline company and construction company..%为了贴近客观实际地评价油气管道施工质量风险，提出了基于属性识别模型的风险评价方法。首先建立属性空间矩阵并进行有序分割，采用客观赋权的熵权法和主观赋权的G1法组合赋权确定各评价指标权重和属性测度，利用置信度准则对模型进行识别，得到管道施工质量降低可能性等级。然后评价管道施工质量降低的后果，依据风险矩阵得到施工质量风险等级。算例表明：人员的素质、错误行为、施工工艺方法和管理方法对油气管道施工质量的影响较大。管段S4、S5发生油气管道施工质量降低的可能性偏高，通过风险矩阵得到管段S4、S5的风险等级也偏高。因此，管道公司和施工单位应着重管控管段S4、S5的风险因素。