首页> 中文期刊> 《中国安全生产科学技术》 >基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价

基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价

         

摘要

为系统地评价地下洞室作业人员安全行为水平,综合运用集对分析和D-S证据理论,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的作业人员安全行为评价方法。首先,分析了影响作业人员安全行为的因素,构建包括作业人员安全素养、生理因素、心理因素、作业技术等4个一级指标及16个二级指标的综合评价指标体系,并将安全行为等级划分为4级;其次,采用集对分析处理二级指标的不确定性,产生基本信度分配函数( BPA);然后,利用D-S证据理论,融合一级指标的BPA,产生最终安全等级隶属度;最后,结合最大隶属度原则和信任准则,确定地下洞室作业人员安全行为等级。以某水电站引水隧洞开挖工程为例,确定该工程中作业人员行为安全等级为z2级,即一般安全,符合工程实际。%In order to systematically evaluate the safety behavior level of workers in underground cavern , an evaluation meth-od on safety behavior of workers in underground cavern based on D -S evidence theory was put forward by comprehensively ap-plying set pair analysis and D-S evidence theory .Firstly, the factors affecting the safety behavior of workers were analyzed , and a comprehensive evaluation index system was built , which included four first level indexes such as safety literacy , physi-ological factor , psychological factor , and working technology of workers and sixteen secondary level indexes , and the safety behavior was divided into four levels .Secondly , the uncertainty of secondary level indexes was processed by set pair analy -sis, and the basic probability assignment (BPA) function was produced .Thirdly, the BPA of first level indexes were inte-grated by using D-S evidence theory to produce the final safety level membership .Finally, combined with the maximum mem-bership degree principle and trust guidelines , the safety behavior level of workers in underground cavern was determined . Taking an excavating engineering of diversion tunnel in a hydroelectric power station as example , the safety behavior level of workers in this engineering was determined to be z2 level, namely general safety , being in line with the engineering reality .

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