基于Probit-Bayes方法的储罐地震易损性研究

摘要

To study the impact of earthquake on storage tanks,the damage degrees of storage tanks were graded according to the historical seismic damage data.The parameters of Probit model were estimated by using the Bayes method,then they were converted into the damage probability of storage tanks.The model parameters under each damage state and the damage probability of storage tanks under the given earthquake acceleration value were presented,and a calculation method on the vulnerability of storage tanks based on Probit-Bayes method was proposed.The results showed that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the damage degree of storage tanks under different earthquake acceleration,and it provides the theoretical basis for the safety assessment of the post-earthquake storage tanks.%为了研究地震对储罐造成的影响,结合历史上储罐的震害资料,将储罐的损伤程度进行分级,通过采用Bayes方法估计Probit模型参数,再转化成储罐的损伤概率,给出了各个损伤状态下的模型参数及给定地震加速度下储罐的损伤概率,提出了1种基于Probit-Bayes方法估计储罐易损性的计算方法.结果表明:所提出的地震损伤计算方法,能够有效的评估储罐在不同地震加速度下的损伤程度,可为震后储罐的安全评估提供理论依据.