化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为模拟演化研究

摘要

为研究化工园区发生突发事件时社会公众的群体行为,结合系统动力学(SD)理论、方法及实际案例情景、数据,以群体行为态势与群体行为传播人数为核心,构建化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为因果图和系统流图.通过研究各影响因素间的关系,运用Vensim PLE软件进行动态模拟,分析事件影响力、公众情绪以及政府公信力对群体行为态势以及行为传播人群的动态变化影响.研究结果表明:提高政府公信力,增加社会公众对政府的满意度和信任度,同时正确疏导公众情绪,加大事件公开度,降低事件影响力,能有效应对群体行为的变化,研究结果可为化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为决策和预防工作提供参考.%In order to study the group behavior of the public under the emergency in the chemical industrial park,combined with the theory and methods of system dynamics(SD)and the scenario and data of practical case,the cause-effect diagram and system flow diagram of the group behavior under the emergency scenario in the chemical industrial park were constructed by taking the group behavior situation and the number of people with the propagation of group behavior as the core.The relationships between the influence factors were analyzed,and the dynamic simulation was carried out by using the Vensim PLE software,so as to analyze the dynamic change of group behavior situation and the behavior propagation group in the case of event influence,public emotion and government credibility.The results showed that improving the government credibility would increase the public's satisfaction and trust to the government.At the same time, counseling the public emotion correctly,increasing the publicity of event,and reducing the impact of event could respond to the change of group behavior effectively.The results can provide the reference for the decision-making and prevention of group behavior under the emergency scenario in the chemical industrial park.