东亚夏季风年代际变化及其对海河流域水文要素的影响

摘要

Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.%基于VIC水文模型输出的水文要素数据,采用小波分析法及Mann–Kendall非参数检验,分析了东亚夏季风及海河流域各水文要素的周期性变化情况以及两者之间的潜在关系.结果表明:东亚夏季风和海河流域各水文要素在40年周期尺度上具有一致性;此外,近60年来各水文要素均呈下降趋势,其中环太行山–燕山山脉山前区域趋势最明显,并且均与东亚夏季风关系密切,1970年以来东亚夏季风的持续减弱导致流域内持续干旱及水资源短缺.研究还发现东亚夏季风具有显著80年周期变化,并且可能在2040 s为海河流域带来大量降水.因此,对东亚夏季风的研究可以为预测海河流域水资源变化及管理提供重要的科学参考.