System and Method for Assessing Future Climatic Change of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

摘要

PURPOSE: A system and method for assessing climatic change of East Asian summer monsoon is provided to quantitatively analyze the change of East Asian summer monsoon by using an AR4(Assessment report 4) CMIP3 model. CONSTITUTION: A system for assessing climatic change of East Asian summer monsoon uses a CMIP3(Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models). The system comprises a space distribution-comparing part(60), a motel selection part(61), a model verification part(62), a quantitative future weather estimator(63), a precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part(64), and a monsoon change evaluation output part(65). The space distribution-comparing part compares climate data of 20th century and space distribution of average climate and precipitation in summer. The model selection part analyze and selects the CIMP3 model by using Taylor diagram. The model verification part divides the selected CMIP3 models, based on simulation capability of the climate data of 20th century and verify per divided groups. The quantitative future weather estimator estimates quantitative change of climate of 21th century. The precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part analyzes factors contributing to future precipitation change. The monsoon change evaluation output part outputs change data of the monsoon change evaluation according to selected models. [Reference numerals] (60) Space distribution-comparing part; (61) Motel selection part; (62) Model verification part for each group; (63) Quantitative future weather change estimator; (64) Precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part; (65) Monsoon change evaluation output part