基于实物期权的物流园区规模与建设时机研究

摘要

This paper addresses the two investment problems of logistic park with logistic demand of market volatility and considering government subside using a real option approach and NPV approach: the size and timing of logistic park. Government subsidies and key parameters are the key factors affecting the investment of logistic park through the comparative analysis of the investment decision of the logistics park. The results show that investors will select smaller size to investment earlier if considering government subside; the higher growth and volatility of demand will result investors more cautions and choose greater size to delay investment; what's more, it is intelligent to select more size and delay the investment for a longer construction period and higher riskless free.%基于市场物流需求不确定,运用实物期权法(RO)和净现值(NPV)法研究物流园区的2个投资问题:所建物流园区的规模和最佳建设时机.运用RO法和NPV法比较分析政府补贴对物流园区建设决策的影响.通过物流园区投资决策的比较,分析关键参数对物流园区投资决策的影响.研究结果表明:与 NPV 法相比,RO 法会推迟物流园区项目投资;考虑政府补贴时会使投资者选择更小的规模,较早进行投资,而不考虑政府补贴时相反;需求增长率、波动率、建设周期以及无风险利率等参数对物流园区投资规模与最佳投资时机的影响显著.